Hypotheses Log
A running list of testable claims, each following the claim provenance template. New evidence — from interviews, research, or direct observation — should update the confidence level and last-reviewed date rather than being added as a disconnected note elsewhere.
H1 — Operational orchestration is the bottleneck, not measurement
Claim: The dominant constraint on forest restoration outcomes today is coordinating fragmented actors and resources over decades, not observing or measuring forest state.
- Sources: Founding team reasoning (see opportunity thesis)
- Evidence: None collected yet
- Confidence: Low / unvalidated
- Last reviewed: 2026-07-25
- What would confirm it: Interviewees across landowner, contractor, and funder roles independently name coordination, accountability, or execution tracking as their top pain point.
- What would falsify it: Interviewees consistently point to financing access or lack of ecological/technical knowledge as the binding constraint instead.
H2 — Measurement and observation are commoditizing
Claim: Remote sensing, satellite imagery, and ecological monitoring capability are improving fast enough that they will not remain a durable point of differentiation for a new entrant.
- Sources: General industry trend (satellite/LiDAR/drone cost curves); not specifically researched for forestry
- Evidence: None collected yet
- Confidence: Low / unvalidated
- Last reviewed: 2026-07-25
- What would confirm it: Multiple existing vendors already offer adequate monitoring at low cost; practitioners don't cite monitoring quality as a limiting factor.
- What would falsify it: Practitioners report that adequate, affordable monitoring is still hard to get for their specific ecosystems/geographies.
Template for new entries
## H<N> — <short claim name>
**Claim:** <the falsifiable statement>
- **Sources:**
- **Evidence:**
- **Confidence:** Low | Medium | High
- **Last reviewed:** <YYYY-MM-DD>
- **What would confirm it:**
- **What would falsify it:**